ECONOMICS OF EGYPTIAN RICE: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY

This research aimed to study the economic and production variables related to rice sector in Egypt. In addition, the possible effects of the policy variables that explain production, productivity, price differences, consumption, and other variables. Also, the interrelationships between the most important economic variables that affect the internal and external market of rice and the impact of the liberalization of exchange rate policy on rice production and exports through an econometric model during the period 1990-2019. The results of the study indicated that the annual growth rate of the cultivated area, productivity and quantity of production of rice were about 0.83%, 1.06%, 1.89% respectively. While the growth rate of the farm price, retail price, quantity of annual consumption, average per capita, the quantity of exports and imports of rice were about 8.39%, 5.02%, 3.52%, 0.26%, 2.09%, 15.53% respectively during the study period. It also showed that the value of the response elasticity coefficient between the cultivated area of rice in the same current year and each of the cultivated area of rice that lagged one year, the net revenue per feddan of rice, the cultivated area of maize, the quantity of rice exports lagged one year, and the productivity per feddan of rice that lagged one year were 0.506, 0.143, -0.82, -0.09, 0.08, and 0.19, respectively. The value of the response elasticity coefficient between the productivity per feddan of rice for the current year and the quantity of rice exports that lagged one year was about 0.038. The value of coefficient of response elasticity between the productivity per feddan and each of the price ratio between rice and maize by lagging one year, and the time variable for the studied period is about -0.133, 0.119, respectively. Finally, the value of the response elasticity coefficient between the quantity of rice consumption and the price differences in the Egyptian market of rice was about -0.004, so that , an increase in price differences of 100% leads to a decrease in the consumption quantity of rice by 0.4%. While the value of the response elasticity coefficient for both the general consumer price index and the consumer price were about 0.382, -0.176, respectively.