ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EGYPTIAN EXPORTS OF DATES: GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Document Type : Researches

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Dept. Agric. Econ., Fac. Agric., Zagazig Univ., Egypt.

Abstract

Egypt enjoys a comparative advantage in the production of dates, as the production of date palms is one of the most important horticultural crops in Egypt, but the volume of Egypt's exports of dates is not commensurate with the increase in production. The study aimed to identify the current situation of Egypt's exports of dates, assess its economic stability, and identify the factors affecting it during the period (2000-2020 .(It was found from the estimation of the instability coefficients for the quantity of total exports of dates that they are unstable, as the instability coefficient for the average period was about 37.88 and the value of total exports of dates unstable, as the instability coefficient for the average period was about 57.08. The study also aimed to apply the gravity model to Egypt's exports of dates to identify the most important variables that affect it. It was found from the results of the model that there is a positive relationship between each of Egypt’s exports of dates, the total Egyptian Gross domestic product (GDP) and the distance variable between Egypt and the most important countries importing dates from Egypt. While there was an inverse relationship between the variable of the quantity of Egypt's exports of dates and each of these variables, the total national product of the importing countries, export price and date production volume.

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