FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR EGYPTIAN FOREIGN TRADE WITH SOME AFRICAN BLOCS IN LIGHT OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGES

Kasem, Ola G.; Ghenmy, Samy; ElSayed, Mohamed A.

doi:10.21608/sinjas.2023.181923.1175

FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR EGYPTIAN FOREIGN TRADE WITH SOME AFRICAN BLOCS IN LIGHT OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGES

Document Type : Researches

Authors

¹ Dept. Econ., Higher Inst. Comp. and Manag. Info. Systems, Min. Higher Edu., Egypt.

² Dept. Econ. and Agric. Extension, Fac. Technol. and Develop., Zagazig Univ., Egypt.

³ Dept. Econ. and Rural Develop., Fac. Environ. Agric. Sci., Arish Univ., Egypt.

10.21608/sinjas.2023.181923.1175

Abstract

The study aims to predict the future of Egyptian foreign trade with some African blocs, which include SADC, IAAC and COMESA, in light of the environmental and economic changes, whichever those related to the African to the Egyptian side. The study reached, through the used approach, which is the quantitative approach, by predicting using the ARIMA model, to a number of results, the most important of which is that the growth rate of Egyptian exports to the countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the period (2022-2030) amounted to about 14.13%, while the countries of the Common Market for Eastern bloc and South Africa (COMESA) amounted to about 7.85%, and the countries of the East African Community (EAC) amounted to about 18.57%. On the other hand, the growth rate of Egyptian imports from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) bloc countries reached about 12.04%, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) bloc countries reached about 17.74%, and the East African Community (EAC) bloc countries reached about 2.78%. The study recommended the need to open markets for Egyptian products or commodities in the three African blocs, given the presence of a large number of consumers in those markets, which represents an increase in demand for Egyptian products.

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