PREDICTING FOOD SECURITY FROM RED MEAT IN EGYPT USING ARIMA MODELS

Selmy, Rana E.; AbdElSalam, Fatma G.

doi:10.21608/sinjas.2023.243276.1239

PREDICTING FOOD SECURITY FROM RED MEAT IN EGYPT USING ARIMA MODELS

Document Type : Researches

Authors

Rana E. Selmy ¹
Fatma G. AbdElSalam ²

¹ Dept. Econ. and Rural Dev., Fac. Environ. Agric. Sci., Arish Univ., Egypt.

² Dept. Agric. Econ., Fac. Agric., Zagazig Univ., Egypt.

10.21608/sinjas.2023.243276.1239

Abstract

The research aims to predict red meat production in Egypt during (2022-2030) using ARIMA studying gab indicators. The results showed that the real needs for red meat are increasing annually by a statistically significant amount of about 49.93 thousand ton, with an annual increase rate of about 2.37%. The size of the real gap decreases annually by a statistically significant amount of about 47.46 thousand ton, with an annual decrease rate of about 3.86%. The total surplus was estimated at 937 thousand ton, sufficient to cover consumption for 295 days. This surplus is directed to fill the deficit in meat consumption of 61 thousand ton, estimated at 19 days. The strategic stock of red meat reached about 876 thousand ton, sufficient to cover local consumption for about 276 days. By studying prediction of the real gap for red meat until the year 2030, it was found that the time series stabilized after taking the initial differences at the 0.05 level, and the best model was chosen, which is (0,1,3), through which it was shown that the correlation coefficients fall within the confidence limits. The real gap indicators for red meat in production and consumption during the predicted period (2022-2030) increased significantly, as production reaches its maximum in 2030, amounting to about 2.1 million ton, and consumption also increases to reach about 3.8 million ton, and the real gap was predicted. Self-sufficiency and thus the gap in red meat increases to about 1.6 million ton, and self-sufficiency decreases to about 56.6%.

Keywords